IND vs NZ 5th T20i: India’s last tune-up, New Zealand’s last punch at Greenfield

They probably thought the story was over, but New Zealand decided to crash the party in Vizag and rearrange the script, when India thought they had wrapped up the 5th T20I against New Zealand at the Greenfield International Stadium.

Now this final T20I is all about the last good impression they can give before the big nights come. The difference in the two teams’ approaches has been stark. India’s batting has been flying at top speed for three games but got completely caught out when the early wickets started falling and the chase got away from them. New Zealand, however, finally managed to get a sense of the powerplay and middle-overs template that didn’t feel like guesswork.

Coming rushing into Thiruvananthapuram on Saturday, with a 7:00 PM start, sea air and square boundaries that will tempt the batsmen, but also a surface that still bites back if you get complacent.

India vs New Zealand: The Balance Question

Well-known as being able to reset their attack without switching off the basics, the question for India is relatively easy, can they find a balance. New Zealand, on the other hand, needs to pack a one-two punch and score something real off this tour, and now has Finn Allen in the mix to do just that.

How the Series Has Played Out

In retrospect, the series began like a statement in Nagpur. India’s 238/7 and 48-run win, kicked off with Abhishek Sharma’s 84 off just 35 balls and Rinku Singh wrapped up the innings as if he never left his role, basically.

Raipur doubled down on the intensity. New Zealand managed 208/6, but India took that down in 15.2 overs, winning by seven wickets. Ishan Kishan’s 76 off 32 balls shook the chase after initial damage, and Suryakumar Yadav’s 82* off 37 was like his captain finding his timing rather than chasing it.

Guwahi was the peak of India’s no-holds-barred batting, and New Zealand only managed 153/9, after which India finished the job in ten overs, eight wickets in hand with sixty-one balls left, and completely flattened the powerplay, Abhishek hit a fourteen-ball fifty, and Suryakumar’s 57* made the chase look effortless.

And then came Vizag, and India’s game slowed down, against their will. New Zealand scored 215/7, powered by Tim Seifert’s sixty-two off thirty-six and Devon Conway’s forty-four off twenty-three, then chipped away at the Indian total. When India were bowled out for just 165 off 18.4 overs in the 5th T20I against New Zealand, the only thing that really made their innings stand out was Shivam Dube’s 65 off 23 balls, and showed the areas where they get out of kilter.

India’s Achilles’ Heel Under Top-Order Pressure

Well-known as a team, India’s Achilles’ heel is being rocked by top-order disruption, and then spun off the rails by the introduction of spinners and cutters that stop the boundary flow, compelling batters to take risks down the leg side.

Coming from 3-1 up in the series, a victory in the final T20I would make the last game feel like a victory lap, but for India, the real purpose of the tournament is to be able to deliver under pressure.

The top three, Abhishek, Suryakumar and the wicket-keeper, have been grabbing the headlines and Vizag re-opened the fight for the wicket-keeper position in brutal fashion, and proved how quickly a chase can turn into a salvage operation when the first six overs go awry.

India’s Bowling: Wickets Over Economy

India have a problem to sort out too, their pace attack has got the goods, but tends to look expensive when totals creep past 200, it’s the wickets that shift the momentum, especially in the powerplay and at the back-end of the innings that are what count, not just the runs.

The ind vs nz 5th T20I is also a mental battle, and in Vizag, once the chase started to slip, the wickets fell in clumps, in Thiruvananthapuram the same thing will happen, and India will need to keep their heads and composure.

New Zealand’s Revival and the Finn Allen Factor

New Zealand’s revival, finally kicked in after a mediocre beginning. They were often behind the game in the early stages, but made up for it by going hard in the third match. In Vizag they managed two things very well, really clicked into gear, getting a purposeful start and then putting pressure on their opponents with their bowling. India’s collapse wasn’t all down to one big shot going astray, it was the scoreboard asking too much of each over as wickets kept falling, something that New Zealand’s bowlers got right in that game.

New Zealand have got a lot of hitting power from Phillips and Seifert, but Finn Allen gives them the ability to turn the powerplay into a real test of nerves. When it comes to New Zealand’s team, Mitchell Santner and Ish Sodhi form a well-known spin duo, and in those conditions they don’t need anything more than a few overs where the ball sticks and the batsmen have to force the issue.

India’s Selection Questions: Wicketkeeper and Axar

India’s biggest decision is the choice of wicketkeeper-batsman, and Sanju Samson’s inconsistent starts, and the increasing noise after Vizag have put him in a tough spot, whereas Ishan Kishan, who missed the last match because of a minor issue, really shook things up in the series with his huge assault in Raipur and his bold attitude at the top of the order.

Well-known problem areas are the fitness of Axar Patel and the consequences it has on the bowling combination and the mix of left and right-handed batsmen in the middle order. New Zealand’s selection process is fairly clear-cut, they just need to pick the best XI and go from there.

Coming back to the Indians, if Kishan is back in the lineup, they’ll have to decide between sticking with Samson for consistency or throwing him in a straight fight for the spot that will be crucial in the tournament. Finn Allen’s addition would push the middle order slightly but would sort out New Zealand’s biggest weakness in the first three games, being a bit light on runs at the start.

Likely XIs

Likely India XI if Kishan is fit: Abhishek Sharma, Ishan Kishan (wk), Suryakumar Yadav (c), Rinku Singh, Hardik Pandya, Shivam Dube, Axar Patel if cleared / a regular bowler, Kuldeep Yadav, Ravi Bishnoi, Jasprit Bumrah, Arshdeep Singh.

India XI if Kishan isn’t fit: Abhishek Sharma, Sanju Samson (wk), Suryakumar Yadav (c), Rinku Singh, Hardik Pandya, Shivam Dube, an all-rounder who can bowl, Kuldeep Yadav, Ravi Bishnoi, Jasprit Bumrah, Arshdeep Singh.

New Zealand’s most likely lineup is Finn Allen, Devon Conway (wk), Tim Seifert, Glenn Phillips, Daryl Mitchell, Mark Chapman/Michael Bracewell, Mitchell Santner (c), Ish Sodh, Matt Henry, Lockie Ferguson, Jacob Duffy / Kyle Jamieson/Zak Foulkes for a more balanced team.

Conditions at Greenfield: Dew, Skid, and Straight Lines

India might consider swapping a fast bowler to keep workloads down, but the Vizag victory makes the value of hitting the ground hard with your best attack, and finishing the series on a high, even more compelling.

Thiruvananthapuram’s conditions can be tricky -. Straighter deliveries will be more effective, when the boundary ropes are inviting and a pitch is in the mid-60m range. A true pitch is likely to result in massive totals, and the evening can also bring some dew, which can make the ball skid, and while it will aid the timing of the batsmen it will crush the bowlers who get their lengths wrong.

Saturday’s forecast promises a clear and warm start with a temperature of 27 degrees Celsius at seven PM, cooling down slightly as the match progresses, and nights such as these are often the nights where captains prefer chasing, especially if the outfield picks up moisture and the ball starts to become harder to grip for the spinners.

Early shot selection is key to the success of the batters.

The new ball can cut through nicely, so there is no need to force against good lengths, and wide yorkers and hard-length variations are going to be the money balls for the bowlers, and anything that finds its way through the middle is almost guaranteed to go over the ropes.

Key Battles That Could Decide the Match

The deciding matches of the series will be those between Abhishek Sharma and Matt Henry, who will be facing each other and the brand-new ball, Abhishek has set the tone for India so far, but the New Zealanders will be looking for a top order collapse that sends them into “rebuild vs chase” territory and if Henry can hit the top of off early, the New Zealand spinners get into the game and that is where they feel at home,

Suryakumar Yadav, on the other hand will be facing Santner’s unorthodox angles, and when Suryakumar finds his groove, he scores in the square region without taking outlandish swings, Santner will be the one who tries to make him hit to the longer side, and block the easy flick off the pads. It’s a battle of wits played at 120 km/h and one single wrong length, makes the field go on a decoration spree.

Dube is India’s “troublemaker” not their savior, coming in at 80 for five is not something they want to see, if they can build a solid platform for him.

Around sixty to seventy runs in the powerplay with one wicket down, then his hitting will be the one thing that wins the game, not just the highlight in a defeat. When Finn Allen faces India’s opening bowlers, those bowlers will need to be disciplined rather than aggressive, because sending down a full, skimming the bottom of the leg stump is basically an invitation, and short balls that are sent down without a backstop in the deep are extremely reckless. Arshdeep and Bumrah have the capability to control Allen, but their strategy should be straightforward and backed up by defensive fields that fit the plan.

Rinku Singh has long been one of India’s top finishers, even when the top order falters, and New Zealand’s best counter to him is rapid, perfectly timed and positioning of fielders that force him to hit straight with the longer boundary in play.

Match Reading and What to Monitor

Coming to predictions, India are still the pre-match favourites, thanks to being the better side for larger parts of the game, and having the higher batting potential. New Zealand will look to follow the Vizag plan: quick wickets, keep the totals in check, and get India to play safe, percentage shots for longer than they want.

If you’re monitoring the mood of the crowd, and how team news affects the sentiment, don’t get too caught up in it, keep an eye on one thing.

The toss and the dew, as it can turn a “190 is basically guaranteed” night into a “210 is the norm” night. You can check out the match hub on Fairplay and see what everyone else is saying, but always remember that it’s the game that will decide the outcome.

Game Scenarios and Team Priorities

My take is, if India bat first, post a score of 190+, they should have more than enough in their bowling arsenal to strangulate New Zealand, especially when Bumrah takes over at the back of the innings. If they’re chasing under the cover of dew and keep their wickets intact until the 12th over, they’ll be able to finish this game with style, New Zealand will need a blistering opening burst from Allen and Conway, and one of Santner or Sodhi to dominate the middle. It was clear that Vizag had exposed the potential for a game to rapidly fall apart when wickets are lost and the run rate takes off, when India took a 3-1 lead in the T20i series.

India need to sort out their keeper-batter issue, the battle between Kishan’s fitness and Samson’s rope length will shape their top six.

Finn Allen’s expected involvement gives New Zealand a powerplay punch they were missing, and that they desperately need to kick-start their run chase.

Short boundaries, like those at Greenfield, make for massive hits and New Zealand can make the evening dew work to their advantage by not running into it much.

Well-known as being able to decide the fate of the game, the first six overs of this match are going to be crucial in deciding whether it is another India run-fest or a New Zealand squeeze.

This 5th T20i is going to be the final match in the series and there are two things at play: the series is essentially in India’s pocket and the story is still being written. Coming off the high of the first three games, India have a chance to nail the finish, and New Zealand will be trying to prove Vizag wasn’t a fluke.

Trivandrum is a stadium known for its electric atmosphere, and it will be full of noise, energy and demanding the best from the teams.

Match Snapshot